Defying Expectations?

ND basketball faces low expectation headed into the 2006-07 season. The Irish have been picked to finish eleventh in the Big East by the coaches, and they have to replace their leading scorer, Chris Quinn, and their leading rebounder, Torin Francis. All this comes after a 16-14 2005-06 and three straight years of missing the NCAA tournament. However, there is reason to believe that ND will perform better than expected.

A key area of improvement for the Irish is the addition of Gene Cross as assistant coach. Cross replaces Lewis Preston, who has moved on to the University of Florida. Cross has won at every stop in his coaching career. In 2005-06 he joined the coaching staff at the University of Virginia, where he helped lead the Cavaliers to an NIT berth despite being picked to finish twelfth in the twelve team ACC. Prior to joining the Cavaliers, he helped lead Depaul to a 58-34 record over three seasons. Cross is considered and excellent recruiter and defensive coach. The Irish will need his acumen in both areas of Coach Mike Brey is to retain his job beyond this season.

Another reason to suspect improved play from the Irish is improved depth. Mike Brey has developed a reputation of not playing more than 7-8 players in his primary rotation. However, there is reason to believe that this is changing. No one has scored more than 17 points in either of ND’s two preseason games, and Brey has used a solid ten-man rotation thus far. It appears that Brey has much more faith in his bench this season than he has had in years past.

Finally, this year’s schedule is more conducive to winning. The Big East expected the past two squads to finish near the top of the league, so ESPN and the conference conspired to give them a marquee, made-for-TV schedule. This year, the coaches do not expect them to finish highly, and their schedule is much easier because of it. Their home-and-away series are against Depaul, Villanova, and USF. This should be much easier than playing Pitt, UCONN, and Syracuse twice each as ND has done in the past. The easier schedule could lead to ND being the next West Virginia and being the surprise team in the conference.

Overall, I am very excited about the chances for this year’s team to have a good season. I expect ND to make the NCAA tournament with 19-21 wins for the season. As Charles Barkley would say, “Anything less would be uncivilized.”